Should you buy a home now or wait for lower rates in 2026? A reality check
If you’ve been sitting on the fence about buying a home, welcome to the club!
Mortgage rates are still hanging out in the mid-6% range and plenty of Virginia buyers are wrestling with the same question: “Should I jump in now or hold out for lower rates in 2026?”
Let’s dig into what the experts are saying about the year ahead and what it might mean for your budget.
🏡 WHERE WE STAND NOW
Virginia’s housing market has been through a rollercoaster since 2020, but it’s slowly settling into a new rhythm. As of late 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits around 6.5%. That’s slightly higher than last year but well below the 7% peaks we saw earlier in 2025.
At the same time, housing prices across Virginia remain steady. The statewide median home price reached $435,000 in July 2025, up about 2.1% year-over-year, according to Virginia Realtors’ Pulse Check on Metro Housing Markets. More homes are coming on the market, too. Inventory rose by 27.5% compared to last year, with more sellers re-entering the market after sitting on the sidelines.
Even with more homes hitting the market, they’re not just collecting dust. Buyers are still out there. They’re just being more cautious and taking their time before making a decision.
📈 THE 2025 OUTLOOK: MORE MOVEMENT, STILL MOMENTUM
Virginia’s strong job market, low unemployment, and growing confidence in the economy are keeping housing demand steady. While the real estate market may not be cheaper, there’s a more even playing field between buyers and sellers.
Here’s what the experts say we can expect:
- More homes for sale – As homeowners feel less tied to their low mortgage rates, more are starting to sell and move to their next home.
- Slightly slower price growth – Prices are still expected to rise, but not as sharply as in recent years.
- Gradual improvement in sales activity – Buyers who held off in 2024 may jump back in during 2025, especially if mortgage rates start to drop later in the year.
📉 THE 2026 FORECAST: RATES WILL DROP (SLOWLY)
If you’re buying a home in 2026, the good news is that mortgage rates should ease up a bit. However, don’t expect anything dramatic right out of the gate.
Fannie Mae’s latest forecast from September 2025 puts rates around 6.4% by the end of this year, dropping to about 5.9% by late 2026. The Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Home Builders are on the same page, predicting somewhere in the 5.9% to 6.3% range throughout that year.
The path to lower rates also won’t be smooth. Experts say it’ll be a “bumpy ride,” with inflation, Treasury yields, and global events still affecting the market.
⚖️ THE FINAL DECISION
At the end of the day, chasing the lowest possible rate can be a gamble. What matters more is whether buying a home aligns with where you are right now.
Here’s what to consider before making your move:
Buy now if:
- You’ve found a home you love and can afford comfortably.
- You’re planning to stay long-term and build equity.
- You prefer stability over trying to time the market.
Wait if:
- You need to strengthen your finances or credit score.
- You’re still saving for a larger down payment.
- You’re not ready to commit to a location just yet.
BUY SMART, NOT SCARED
Whether you decide to buy now or hold off until 2026, the most important step is making a decision based on your situation and not from the fear of missing out.
And if you’re still unsure, it helps to talk it through with someone who knows Virginia’s market inside and out.
The Poore Team has over 40 years of combined experience in local real estate and they can give you expert tips on buying a home in this fast-moving market.
Get in touch with The Poore Team at 804.567.9250 or send them a message. You can also visit ThePooreTeam.com to learn more.